News Flash! Flash on the iPhone, don't hold your breath.

PC World reported: iPhone Finally to Get Adobe Flash

Adobe confirmed yesterday at the Flash On The Beach (FOTB) conference in Brighton, UK that it is actually developing a Flash Player for the iPhone.
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Whether Flash for iPhone will ever see the day of light is yet unknown. Adobe officials said that once their application will meet Steve Job's standards, it might just make an appearance in the next incarnation of the iPhone.

Well folks, this is unlikely and here's why:

1. Developer agreements don't allow it.  No programs that run programs are permitted, hence no Java, no SCUMM (adventure interpreter used by classic Lucas Arts games), and probably no Flash.

2. Steve Jobs has made a public statement that FLASH runs too slowly on the device to be useful.

3. The main reason?  This is a public stunt to embarrass Apple into approving Flash.  

As a business strategy, it's a non-starter.  Apple is now pushed into a situation where approving Flash would make them lose face.  Surely Shantanu Narayen (Adobe CEO) has done business in Asia and understands that this probabily won't work.  

If Adobe wanted Flash on the iPhone Shantanu would pick up the phone and work out a deal with Jobs. 

Look at it this way, a stand alone Flash-Player as a iPhone app doesn't even address the main use of Flash, as a plug-in in the web browser.  If Apple wanted Flash on the iPhone, that's how it would show up.

I personally like Flash (I have even coded  Flash Based Games  for fun and profit in my past) and clearly "Flash Lite", a reduced size version for mobile devices,would run pretty nicely on the iPhone. 

Flash Lite has been a big success in Japan, with one portal, Mobile Game Town, seeing over 1 million Flash Lite games played daily.

So why not Flash or even "Flash Lite?"

Well, here's one obvious reason:

Apple wants native iPhone apps.  Native apps take advantage of the iPhone's unique hardware and provide performance on a par with Sony PSP and Nintendo DS devices.  Apple shifted its focus from web apps to native apps for a similar reason.  Native apps also give the iPhone a performance edge over Java apps on the Google Android system.

Users now prefer iPhone native apps over iPhone web apps.  You now see Facebook, Linked-In, Twitter, and other web destinations offering native iPhone apps with a better user experience than the websites (even specially crafted for the iPhone) they replaced.

So maybe this is a 'stunt' by Adobe to make Apple look bad?

Well, if it's any comfort to Flash fans, I don't expect to Flash to show up on Android.  The Android development system is based on Java and I can't see Java running Flash in a acceptable manner.

Hey, I could be wrong about all of this.  It won't be the first time.